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Net capital outflow from Russia in January amounted to $40 billion, the withdrawal of money virtually stopped.
Such data has led Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin on the board of the Federal Tax Service. Those who wanted to leave, he said, have already done so. However, capital inflows into the country shortly to wait still not worth it. He acknowledged that Russia has suffered from the crisis stronger than the developed countries and increase its GDP is not even at unrealistically high for 2009, the price of oil at 50-55 dollars per barrel. The head of the Ministry of Economic Development Elvira Nabiullina, in contrast, believes that, with successful anti-crisis measures growth is possible even in 2009. So far, officials argue, confidence in the power rating is reduced.
From October 2008 to January 2009 outflow was about 200 billion U.S. dollars, calculated Alexey Kudrin, but it is now virtually ceased. According to him, those who wish, including Russian companies, have already eliminated capital abroad. Smooth the devaluation of the ruble, accelerated in January, contributed to the care people, banks, companies in the currency. Now this process is somewhat stabilized. «The share of foreign currency deposits in total deposits in Russian banks is 32%, and now it is stable – confirmed yesterday at a meeting of the banking commission RUIE First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexey Ulyukaev. – Foreign currency deposits ceased to grow ». However, the outflow could again increase if oil prices fall and the government will resort to further devaluation of the ruble for a nominal recharge budget. To resume the inflow of capital into the country, economists estimate «Renaissance Capital» Elena Sharipova, oil should appreciate at least 50 dollars per barrel.
In the meantime, the economy continues to decline. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, GDP in 2009 decreased by 2,2%, with an average price of oil at 41 dollars per barrel. According to Mr. Kudrin, Russia’s GDP will fall, even if oil suddenly went up and the average price would be 50-55 dollars per barrel (more than likely the price, according to many experts, 32 dollars per barrel). Because of the reduction in the fall of the global economy, he expects no significant growth in oil prices, because in the next few years should not expect a significant increase in revenues and the Russian budget.
MEDT, the traditional opponent of the Ministry of Finance, believes the situation in Russia is not so bad. According to the Minister of Economic Development Elvira Nabiullina, GDP growth in 2009 at a price of 50 dollars per barrel is still possible to «subject to the effectiveness of anti-crisis measures». Chief Economist «Troika Dialog» Yevgeny Gavrilenkov believes that growth is possible at any price, if achieved macroeconomic stability: «After all, grown as before and with $20». In his view, it is necessary to move to floating exchange rates, not to increase budget expenditures, with lower inflation and interest rates, and therefore the extension of credit on a market basis. A Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Economic Development provided a different impact of anti-crisis measures, and because estimates of the growth of GDP is not the same », – said the expert group of the Economic Expert Nicholas anther.
In spring last year, Alexei Kudrin, spoke of Russia as an island of stability in the world ocean bushuyuschem crisis. International financial institutions have confirmed this assessment forecasts that developing countries suffer less from the crisis than developed. Yesterday, Alexei Kudrin admitted that in 2009 no country, except for other oil-producing states, has not been faced with this decline in revenues as Russia. However, to attach great importance to predictions of Ministers is not worth, the situation is very volatile, said Mr. Gavrilenkov: «In 1998, when everything collapsed, the IMF and the Russian government said that in 1999 Russia will decline by 5-8% and resulted in 6% growth ».
To restore the economy and the stock market needs confidence (people, companies, etc.) and the upward trend in oil prices since the start of the 50 U.S. a barrel, believes Ms. Malofeeva. But differences in the government are clearly not conducive to trust. According to the Levada Center poll, the proportion of Russians who believe that the cases in the country are generally in the right direction, now is 41%, the opposite view hold 40% of the citizens. In January, people were more optimistic: the right course authorities believed 43% of respondents, wrong – 34%.
Central Bank intends to fight inflation by reducing the volume of refinancing the banking system.
According to First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexey Ulyukaeva, issuance to cover the federal budget deficit in 2009 could reach 2.7 trillion rubles. but it would not affect the inflation rate, since the Central Bank will reduce this amount to refinance the banks. Yesterday at the meeting of the committee RUIE on banks and banking activities Alexey Ulyukaev said that the amount of money to cover shortfalls in the federal budget in 2009 could reach 2.7 trillion rubles., RIA News. However, it is estimated by Mr. Ulyukaeva, it will not affect inflation, as the Central Bank in the same amount reduces the refinancing of the banking system. In doing so, Mr. Ulyukaev added that does not overstate the importance of the refinancing of banks by the Central Bank, as their share of liabilities of the refinancing does not exceed 20%.
As explained RBC daily the first executive vice president of RSPP, Alexander Murychev, bankers involved in the committee, calmly accepted the statement of Alexei Ulyukaeva: everyone understands that bezzalogovye auctions are a temporary tool, and sooner or later must end. «In this connection, we appealed to the Central Bank with a proposal to increase from three to six years’ term of the subordinated loans to banks, – said Alexander Murychev. – In addition, bankers have proposed to substantially reduce the size of their contribution to the capital of the bank in the event that the State is willing to participate in the capitalization of the bank ». Remember, the government is ready to capitalize the banks on the basis of «15 15»: if the shareholders of the Bank increased its capital by 15%, so, for its part, adds the state. «Many of the owners of banks do not have funds for the capitalization of the bank, even in these volumes, therefore, been requested to reduce their share to almost to zero, – explained Mr. Murychev. – I believe that it is possible to limit the participation of shareholders of five percent – less than wise, as to drastically reduce their liability to clients and CB ».
yesterday Alexey Ulyukaev told reporters that the Bank of Russia has no plans to issue bezzalogovye loans in excess of 1.9 trillion rubles. but at the same time will increase the proportion of banks’ refinancing of mortgage loans, transfer agency Prime TASS. In addition, Mr. Ulyukaev not exclude that a number of banks may be a negative equity, which the Central Bank needs to develop measures to support them. In particular, according to Alexei Ulyukaeva, it can be done through the equation of capital first and second tier banks and increasing the provision of subordinated loans: There is no regulatory prohibitions. However, according to Mr. Ulyukaeva, the Central Bank has not yet adopted any specific measures to address this problem – until all are at the level of discourse.
RUIE Commission Co-Chair of banks and banking activities, the president of the Association of Russian Banks Garegin Tosunyan called the reduction of capital of banks, including up to a negative value, as a result of deterioration in the quality of assets – a system problem. «In my opinion, the creation of« bad bank »in the form of problem assets of the fund is one of the proposals that deserve attention – explained Garegin Tosunyan. – But it does not mean that the Fund will assume all of the bad bank assets. It should be understood, in which case the assets have problems due to objective reasons, and where – because of a lack of talent management ». In addition, the Government could well go on providing incentives for banks to profit tax, if it aims to increase the capital of the bank, added Mr. Tosunyan. «Finally, it is necessary to lower the standards of redundancy, as must now set aside all the bad assets, and accordingly, this amount is reduced capital banks», – believes Garegin Tosunyan. In addition, yesterday the Central Bank allowed the banks not to create reserves for loans provided by the Agency for Deposit Insurance.
world market prices for oil, on the basis of bidding on 26 February 2009. at the leading petroleum exchanges have increased significantly.
Official prices of oil futures next month, the supply of: – In London on InterContinental Exchange Futures – IPE Brent Crude – 46,51 (+2, 22) U.S. $/ bbl. – New York at the New York Mercantile Exchange – Light, Sweet Crude Oil – 45,22 (+2,72) USD / barrel.
Increase occurred at background data of the U.S. government a sharp reduction in national fuel supplies, as well as the expectations of investors, further reducing the production of OPEC countries.
in the Industrial Court of Samara transferred to the criminal case against 20-year-old student Povolzhskiy State University of Telecommunications and Informatics (PGUTI), chair of E-Commerce Lab, which created the virus to break the virtual “wallets” of users.
According to RBC in the Investigation Department of Investigations Committee at the Russian prosecutor’s office in Samara region, before the software product on the market has had a student obvorovat several thousand internet users. Replacing the details with operations in the system WebMoney, trojan special part of the funds transferred to the hacker. Until the police arrest a student wrote three versions of the virus and sold 50 copies of the program for $100 each.
State Tax Administration has identified the causes of currency shortages in Ukraine.
With the help of schemes to transfer money abroad, and for speculation on the market in 2008 was bought $17.5 billion More than half the funds – $9.8 billion – bought by the banks for the formation of open currency positions. Bankers attributed this need to establish reserves for foreign currency loans and minimize risks. Experts believe that this year’s “shadow” schemes will become even more popular.
Yesterday, director of the Department of the State Tax Administration (STAU) to combat the laundering of proceeds of crime, Igor Stelmahovich said that the system control of the National Bank’s Exchange ineffective and provokes the banks and business to create powerful permanent channels’ withdrawal of currency abroad. “Today STAU not involved in the control of the purchase of currency, even though four years ago, there was a temporary order,” – he said. STAU within three days of receiving information from the banks for foreign currency demand and in the absence of claims approved the purchase.
According to Mr. Stelmahovicha, in 2008 approximately $17.5 billion were taken using the three major schemes. Thus, the $2.7 billion transferred as settlement for the import of goods and services without their import, and $4.6 billion – the return of portfolio investments (in particular, the purchase of technology stocks). The largest amounts of currency – $9.8 billion – bought by banks to open foreign currency position and for holding speculative trading. ” The lion’s share purchased in the IV quarter – $7.5 billion in 2007, the currency was illegally removed in less than a quarter – $13.2 billion, while foreign banks have established positions on the $6.5 billion in STAU among banks, are actively moving forward in 2008 was named the only bank “Nadra”.
NBU Data on trading income for the IV quarter, which is formed primarily from the revaluation of the exchange rate, showed that the top-5 is composed of Prominvestbank (870 million UAH) , Alfa-Bank (708 million grn), Ukrsotsbank (646 million grn), ОТР Bank (640 million UAH) and “Nadra” (UAH 602 million). “Many banks bought a lot of currency in the position, as seen on their trading results. Some banks earned large sums of money on currency revaluation,” – noted the director of the treasury of one of the largest lending institutions. When buying currency in the long position, the banks create reserves for foreign currency loans, minimizing the risks.
Deputy chairman of the board of another major bank added that the currency deposited in the open position, some market participants have been able to redeem its Eurobonds at a discount: “After the reduction of the ratings are falling in price, and it was profitable.” Such operations STAU can fix a withdrawal of capital, the banker suggested. “The withdrawal of capital since September began to practice many of the MPs, and our VIP-clients have become assimilated to them. These transactions, banks also have been forced to take a stand on”, – said interlocutor Kommersant. It is selling the currency lending institutions with open long positions has caused a sharp fall in the dollar on Wednesday, told Kommersant treasurers. “PrivatBank and several players gave a great proposal, and course has been declining,” – said one of them.
According to Igor Stelmahovicha, in the first two schemes in 2008 involving 50 banks and their affiliates. “It’s smaller banks that do not have a deposit or credit history, income, and no normal customers, so they specialize in the withdrawal of currency”, – he said. As a source of Kommersant said in STAU, these banks are registered to Kiev, Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions. Currency funds originated in the Parex bank (Latvia), Ukio bank (Lithuania), AUB (Kyrgyzstan) and a number of Bank of Cyprus.
According to experts, during the crisis circuit operation will only increase. Analyst IR Dragon Capital Elena Belan said that, according to some expert estimates, the shadow economy takes 30-50% of GDP and may rise another 30%. “Care in the shade – one of the ways to minimize taxes, and now companies are using every opportunity to save,” – she added. At the same time President of the Association of Regional Stock Union “Sergei Antonov believes that with the intensification of shadow economy will increase and control, in particular, by the sale of technical SCSSM shares. This scheme can eliminate only determined by the present price of paper on the exchange. “In Russia, any calculations tied to stock prices, and there the problem does not exist for several years,” – he said.
Banks received the leaders of the trade Income in VI quarter of 2008 from the revaluation of the currency bought
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Source: National Bank of Ukraine
At
debt Amtel-Vredestein bond «Sibur».
«Sibur – Russian Tires» until the end of February and was unable to obtain the consent of all creditors Amtel -Vredestein to convert the debts of the company’s own bonds. Some banks, notably Sberbank, did not have either a positive or negative opinion. In «Sibur» still rely on a favorable decision, explaining the current delay in bureaucratic delays. However, sources close to the deal, saying that the scheme proposed «Sibur», is questionable with lenders.
At the end of January «Sibur – Russian Tires» unveiled the scheme of possible absorption of Amtel-Vredestein. Company issued convertible bonds for 12.7 billion rubles., Which is scheduled to deploy to creditors Amtel in exchange for the debts of the company. Also, they offer bonds «Sibur Holding» in the amount of 2.7 billion rubles. By the end of 2012, Amtel lenders will be able to convert the bonds into shares (up to 45%) «Sibur – Russian tire».
On the whole, are ready to buy back up to 15.392 trillion rubles. Russia’s debt unit Amtel-Vredestein, through the exchange of claims on its loans to bonds of OAO «Sibur Holding» (amounting to 2.7 billion rubles.) and convertible bonds «Sibur – Russian Tires» amounting to 12.692 trillion rubles. As the first securities lenders can count on the coupon yield of 9% and the repayment of the offer in March 2011. For the second paper (their issue has already been registered FSFR, nominal bonds 1,67 EUR., Maturity date – no later than December 21, 2012), the coupon is not available, but it is to convert each bond per share «Sibur – Russian tire».
After receiving the debts of Amtel-Vredestein, «Sibur – Russian Tires» then expected to convert their assets into the company. In doing so, the bankruptcy of Amtel «Sibur – Russian Tires» wish to avoid, hoping to agree on a debt or equity assets. In the «Sibur» expected that they will be able to negotiate with creditors Amtel before the end of February, saying that they need not all agree, but the majority of creditors. Despite the fact that the alleged «Sibur» deadline came, the transaction is actually suspended.
As reported yesterday zamgendirektora «Sibur – Russian Tires» Igor Karavaev, with most banks, in particular «Petrocommerce», Promsvyazbank, Rosbank, and BSGV and UniSredit, agreements have been reached yet in December. Sberbank, controls about 20% debt Amtel, gave an informal oral agreement, but the credit committee on the subject in the bank was not accepted.
«We continue to interface with the Savings Bank at the working level and with a week to week, and now day by day expecting solutions», – said Mr. Karavaev. According to him, «Sibur» is looking forward to a positive decision. He expressed confidence that the problem lies in the bureaucratic complexities. However, the wait is short: in «Sibur» schitanye willing to wait for days. «At the beginning of next week should be made any decision on our part,», – he said. According to Igor Karavaeva, «Sibur» can make the transaction without the consent of the Savings Bank. Then Sberbank will have to clarify with «Sibur» is already on the committee of creditors. As a second option, «Sibur» altogether abandon the deal. «Sberbank then no longer have to deal with us, but with all the other banks», – predicts Mr. Karavaev.
representative of the Savings Bank was yesterday unavailable for comment. However, as reported by RBC daily source close to the transaction, its consent to the operation not to have not only Sberbank, but also Nomos-Bank and Commerzbank. «Proposal« Sibur »more than a discussion. If it does not raise questions, a positive decision would be taken long ago », – said interlocutor RBC daily.
Swiss Federal Prosecutor’s Office confirmed that the Swiss law firm Rued Winkler Partners has filed a statement on the initiation of criminal proceedings against the President of the Board UBS President Peter Kurera and Swiss financial regulator FINMA Yugena Haltinera.
Rued Winkler Partners advocates on behalf of eight American clients UBS, who accuse the presidents of UBS and FINMA that by submitting information on some of UBS clients to American authorities, they have violated bank secrecy. Last week, UBS has provided the U.S. data on 250 clients, after the U.S. government has accused the bank that its representatives have helped some clients to conceal their income from U.S. tax service. UBS argues that by issuing the information of clients, acting on orders from FINMA.
Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) said that the outcome of 2008 was a loss of £ 24 billion – a record annual loss in the history of British companies. The government hurried to declare the readiness of RBS insurance assets and increase its share in the bank.
British RBS said yesterday that the company’s loss in 2008 amounted to approximately £ 24 billion This was the biggest loss in British corporate history. The previous record belonged to a telecommunications company Vodafone, losses which in 2006 amounted to £ 15 billion
bank director Stephen Hester promised that RBS will be “a serious restructuring.” In particular, the Bank has problem assets valued at £ 540 billion a separate unit, as did Citigroup in January. In addition, the Bank intends to undertake a reduction in the cost of £ 2,5 billion, closing its offices in many countries, leading to the dismissal of 20 thousand people.
RBS has confirmed that will participate in a government plan to protect assets, which provides that the State ensures that problem bank assets worth £ 325 billion in exchange for this bank is obliged to pay the state £ 6,5 billion for seven years in the form of preferred shares, and within two years spends £ 50 billion in mortgages and corporate loans. The agreement, concluded the Ministry of Finance of the UK and RBS, would result in the government share in the bank increased from about 70 to 75%. Stephen Hester said that does not exclude such a scenario, where the government share may increase to 95%.
The state has agreed to insure the assets of RBS for a large amount than analysts predicted, so the rate of bank shares on the London Stock Exchange rose yesterday by 20%.
At the same time, with the announcement of the bank about their loss was reported that the annual pension of former heads of RBS Fred Goodwin is £ 650 thousand, the Director-General Bank Stephen Hester argues that the pension was approved several years ago, even before how the Bank began to experience serious financial difficulties. Nevertheless, the Minister of Finance of Britain Alister Darling has already said that in the circumstances, such pension – “luxury” and therefore “Sir Fred would voluntarily abandon its parts”.
largest Polish bank PKO BP reported a decrease in net profit in the IV quarter of 2008 to 548 million zlotys ($147.8 million).
This is 37.37% less than 875 million zlotys from the IV quarter of 2007. Previously, it was expected that gains in the IV quarter of last year amount to 754 million zlotys. The bank believes that the reason for the deterioration of the financial results associated with the increase in Ukrainian “daughter” of JSC “Kredobank. PKO has invested 246 million zlotys in the provision of loans in Kredobank, which can become “bad” in a financial crisis, and 76 million zlotys sent to the loss in value of investments in Ukraine. The bank took a 1-place assets in Poland (135 billion zlotys). PKO BP owns 98.18% stake in OAO Kredobank. According to the Association of Ukrainian Banks, as of January 1, the bank held a 28 th place on assets (UAH 6.383 trillion) and 35 th of capital (UAH 730.964 billion).
Chairman of the Board of Erste Bank’s Josef Sikela said that the bank has reduced staffing by 300 employees (with the level of 2120 employees -14,15 %).
“We started reduction in the IV quarter of 2008 and we want to finish over the next few weeks. This is a normal rotation, “- said the banker. Erste Bank has attracted $62 million subordinated loan to the terms of the parent group has no plans to reduce regional network (137 offices) and allows for losses as a result of 2009 in the amount of no more than 5-6% of the capital. The bank expects that the fall of the loan portfolio of about 10%. The largest shareholder of JSC “Erste Bank” is the Austrian Erste Group Bank AG. According to the Association of Ukrainian Banks, as of January 1, Erste Bank held 21 th place on assets (11029 billion UAH) and the 23rd of capital (UAH 1.28 billion).
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