Archive for January 2009
Discount Bank of Russia, the price of gold reached a 31 January historic high 1,045.8 rubles per gram by the continuing devaluation of the currency and rising gold prices in overseas trading floors.
Gold in London has now reached the mark of 919.5 dollars per ounce / 1047 EUR per gram / ruble fell against the dollar to 35.4 rubles.
Chief Economist UnicreditAton Vladimir Osakovsky finds that the ruble is close to its fair value and rely on the strong decline is not worth it. The bank expects the average price of gold in 2009 amount to U.S. $890 per ounce and is not projected to increase substantially quotations precious metals in the near future.
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One of the reasons for the current global financial crisis is that a long time, West did not live within our means. ” According to ITAR-TASS news agency, said of the Federal Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel, speaking today to a special address to the World Economic Forum.
“We can no longer live above its means as is now. We need to think about future generations, need for the future. And this requires major structural economic reforms “, – said A. Merkel.
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requirements that investors make to the reliability of banks, the coffin of the economy, the head of the Central Bank said the euro, Jean-Claude Trichet.
Banks are forced to increase its own capital at the expense of credit. Investors have a counter-claim: the state pressure on banks, without compromising their stability. Both sides were right, recognized by experts.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet on Jan. 30 at the summit in Davos «seriously warned» players in world financial markets that they have ceased to tread on the banks, forcing those to build their own capital. Such practices, in his view, to the continuation and deepening recession.
«Podgrebanie» banks money themselves for the sake of shareholders and investors reduces the opportunities for investment, shortens the investment horizon of non-financial sector and does not global economy to begin recovery, Trichet explained. He was supported and the heads of major European banks. Thus, the head of Deutsche Bank Josef Ackermann eve thrice stressed: «The fact that markets offer is not acceptable».
Investors are also concerned about the pressure on banks, but on the other side. As noted by The Financial Times, many financial Aces and policies in Europe are concerned that the coming era of financial protectionism. They note the growing desire of politicians to force banks to curtail cross-border activities in favor of lending to customers within their home countries. This, they believed, could lead to a further deepening of the global economic downturn. Particularly affected by this trend, the markets of developing countries most dependent on the movement of global capital, warned the head of the bank HSBC, which has extensive interests in Asia, Stephen Green.
In developing markets, like Russia, the processes of building Capital Bank also observed. In Russia, the initiator of the greater is the state. On the one hand, it carries out large-scale infusion of major banks whose capital is from the growing conditions in the credit contraction, a process that grows. For example, January 30, Alfa-Bank has received from the State Development Bank’s loan in the amount of 10.2 billion rubles., Which would increase the bank «second-tier capital» (capital, taking into account provisions for the possible revaluation of assets and losses on loans). And on the other hand, seeks to compel the state financial corporations to grow in prikaznom order. As we wrote «Газета.Ru», according to the amendments to «the Banking Act», batten the minimum size of their own capital would be increased in stages to 180 million rubles.
But financiers, who Trichet criticized, too, is understandable. In the panic following the bankruptcy of one of the pillars of American investbenkinga Lehman Brothers in September, investors obzhegshis for milk, more and more «punished» banks, which have, in their view, inadequate capital, said The Financial Times. And thus encourage banks to allow the resources available for capital growth, not to expand lending activities.
«Trichet is right in his analysis, but the problem is that banks are too correct», & ndash , observed the head of the department of analysis of world markets infrared «Finam» Michael Aristakesyan. Banks are really now are forced to focus primarily on the accumulation of capital stock. But it is not only the desire to please investors.
«The main reason for the pressure on banks with the requirement to increase capital and the desire of banks to that associated with losses incurred by financial institutions because of the devaluation and write-offs of assets – said head of the department of international relations and inter-bank businesses Russian Bank for Development Yuri Amvrosiev. – At the same time, despite the crisis, the requirements for capital adequacy, as well as the fundamental dogmas of financial accounting and reporting, no one canceled ».
But even if the appeal will be heard by the ECB chapter in itself this is unlikely to restore lending to the real sector, analysts doubted. Increased lending activity hampered as the fundamental causes, such as high-risk and volatility of markets in the previous months. «For example, the behavior of investors, who over the past year, dropped out of the capital asset into an asset, causing febrile illness movement of stock indices and currencies around the world», – noticed Amvrosiev. Therefore, only one measure, the proposed Trichet, the problem is not resolved, the expert concludes.
Rather than exchanging harsh statements, European regulators and the heads of commercial banks now, it would be wiser to sit at the negotiating table, experts suggest . In addition the ECB could help just the banks that are trying to actively confront the crisis.
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index of pan-European blue chips “FTSEurofirst 300. FTEU3 lost 0.3% to 794.12. During the session, the index moved very raznonapravleno.
Paper Miner Xstrata (XTA.L) went to minus 12%, while the quotes Antofagasta (ANTO.L) lost 6,3%, while paper Anglo American (AAL.L) fell by 5.8% as prices for copper dropped.
quotes BHP Billiton (BLT.L) fell by 7 , 5%, reports Reuters.
Paper oil sector also show negative trends. The price of shares BP (BP.L) fell by 1.4% and paper Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) went in at minus 4,4%.
European indexes finished a week decline. Leading British FTSE 100 index. FTSE lost 1%, the German DAX. GDAXI left in the minus 2%, while the French CAC 40. FCHI retreated more than 1%.
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Confidence among U.S. consumers rose significantly in January, less than predicted by economists, as well as fears related to the situation in the labor market, reduced the optimistic mood with regard to the policies of President Barack Obama, which was to alleviate the impact of recession on the economy.
index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan (Reuters / University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, final) rose to 61.2. That is less than predicted by economists. In December the index stood at 60.1. The index of inflation expectations, which deals with the Fed, rose.
Obama, who officially assumed office as President of the United States last week, hopes to quickly embark on a program of financial support in the amount of $819 billion, which will aim at creating 4 million jobs, lower taxes and increase spending on infrastructure development. On the labor market situation is very unstable. The number of layoffs is growing, the volume of lending decreased, housing prices are falling. All this signals a further reduction in consumer spending, which accounted for 70% of the country’s economy.
«The situation is quite difficult for households. The negative trend prevailing in the labor market undermines the confidence of the population. We can see how rapidly declining activity »- said Dean Maki (Dean Maki), a leading economist of Barclays Capital.
consumer sentiment index was up 61.9, according to 54 economists forecast, participating in the study of Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from 60 to 65.
Labor Department reported today that the economy decreased by 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2008 This is the weakest economic growth since 1982 Expenditures Consumers have fallen in the last 3 months to 3,5%.
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rate reached a new record minimum for the dollar, euro and a basket, falling to bivalyutnoy box without the participation of the Central Bank of Russia on Friday the results of about 60 cents on the background of the desire to reach a new market ofera Central Bank of Russia, but at the same time, some members Market decided to record gains on long-currency position.
Quotations bivalyutnoy ruble to a basket ($0,55 and 0,45 euros) fell by about 40 cents compared to the closing bid Thursday to 40.16 rubles, then a fixed profit recovered to about 39,85-39,95 the ruble, and then again started to decline and finished the day at around 40.35 rubles – the lowest level since the introduction of the current composition of the basket in bivalyutnoy February 2007.
Ruble also reached a record minimum in the U.S.: on the MICEX was the deal at the rate of 35.83 rubles per dollar in the section in the calculations “tomorrow”, a pair of euro / dollar at auction calculations of “tomorrow” has reached record high 46.4 rubles.
Many market participants are going to “find” new Ofer Central Bank, which, according to the regulator, is at the level of 41 rubles to the basket. Dealers noted that in Friday trading on the MICEX exchange took place without the involvement of the Bank of Russia.
“With long positions (in the currency), yet no one thought to give up, all bought for half an hour and more, all (basket , the dollar and the euro) has gone up, – said Victor Holoshnoy of Gazprombank. – I think today there was no Bida or ofera CB “.
Dealer major Russian bank said that market participants closed position against a background of fears that as we approach the Ofer CB market may begin to turn, and they did not find buyers uspeyut currency to close the position.
“Almost all who wanted to have closed position, the long-term speculative positions, in principle, no, “- said the dealer.
According to him, when the value of the basket – the main course of CB landmark – rises in the area of 40.50 rubles, many market participants can begin to build a short position on the basket.
“I think the equilibrium rate of the dollar will find in the area of 32-33 rubles,” – he added.
According to Alexei Kulakova of Promsvyazbank, speed reduction ruble to a basket until ofera Brokers will depend “on what peresilit: greed and fear”.
“Now corporations are buying (the currency), the population something is still “metet.” Plus, the speculative demand is still “- said Kulakov At the end of the day, trading a pair of dollar / ruble calculations” tomorrow “on the MICEX was $4.23 billion.
weighted average exchange rate for the ruble calculations “tomorrow” has risen to 1.88 per cent to a historic peak of 35.4886 to 34.8339 rubles to the closure of the trading day before.
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Under conditions of crisis is growing attention to the issue of inflation in Russia, the idea to grow – for two reasons. First, continuing the country’s steady growth in prices is simply obscene for a global reduction in inflation performance.
And secondly, in view of today ozvuchivaemyh experts all new expectations scourge like Russia rolling into a spiral of devaluation and inflation, or stagflation (implying the fall of the economy, with an increase in the price), and is already happening in terms of reducing income and savings, as well as the growth of unemployment, of course, increases the social significance of the price factor. Until now, however long overdue attention to “inflationary subject” in Russia was not given, the expert agrees to the Economic Expert Group (EEG) Maria Kataranova.
Meanwhile, the latest IMF forecast uzhestochennom (which In particular, predicted the fall of the euro zone economy is not at 0.2% as expected in November, and at 2% and in Russia – by 0.7%, instead of emerging growth in the previous 3.5%) predicted a significant reduction in the worldwide inflation. Thus, in countries with developed economies in 2009, experts expect the Fund’s record low inflation of 0.25% (at 3.5% in 2008-m and 0.75% – in 2010-m). In the same countries with developing economies in the 2009-meters to be inflationary growth at an average rate of 5.75% and 5% next year (at 9.5% in 2008-m).
While in Russia the prices of goods and services last year grew by 13.3%, and from 1 to 26 January, according to Rosstat, increased by 2%. Overall this year, an estimated Development Center, a leading economist, told the Center Valery Mironov, inflation could reach about 15% (14.9%), significantly higher than officially projected 13 per cent.
On the background of a general reduction in the rate of inflation continued its growth in the Russian state, of course, it is disturbing, Mironov explained. While it is said that in comparison with other countries exporting energy from the group of developing economies, this difference was not as depressing. In addition, the interviewee continued, some inflationary pressures in Russia are objective. In the face of a huge country would inevitably increase the value transportoemkosti, as well as enhanced, including by reason of a cold climate, the energy that is taken into account in the final price.
inevitably affects the inflation and acquiring today dramatic the process of devaluation of the ruble, leading to higher prices of imported goods. In the past two days, the ruble came under strong attacks by speculators, who completed the ruble shortage of cash in connection with tax payments, we decided to test the strength of the alleged last week, the Central Corridor technical upper limit, limiting the ruble to a basket bivalyutnoy level of 41 rubles to the dollar rate of 36 rubles. In Friday trading opened new record – the ruble to a basket bivalyutnoy standing at 40.17 rubles. And on the same day, speaking in the State Duma, the first vitsn Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov predicted in the near future and overcome the inevitable border level of 36 rubles per dollar.
Until now, experts actively supports devalvatsionnyh measures, urging the government “dropped” the ruble at a faster pace. In particular, they cited the fact that the weakening of the currency will benefit the domestic real sector. So when the recent devaluation of the Government led to a smooth 30-percent devaluation of the ruble, and after a break set new peaks of his fall, analysts have suddenly started talking about that, in fact, the use of devalvatsionnyh procedures for the manufacturing sector is limited . This conclusion is contained in the published before the review “Alfa Bank”.
As explained Strane.Ru analyst Alfa Bank Olga Naidenova, to revitalize the manufacturing sector today is very small. In connection with the global crisis in the world continues to fall the level of solvency and demand. Production capacity is at Russian enterprises, and so loaded with 80% (defoltnom in 1998, this figure does not exceed 50%, and 100 per cent load, it turns out, in practice almost guaranteed), and rely on their breakthrough development in a problematic lending the current weakness of the banking system is also difficult. In such circumstances, the Government’s large-scale pumping money economy faces further aggravate inflationary momentum and eventually Russia in danger of falling into a spiral of devaluation and inflation, has concluded Naidenova.
As domestic economic thinking has already begun initial izzhivat vostorgi about a devaluation, although it caused largely by objective changes in external economic conditions (especially in oil prices), but fraught with subjective costs and risks, will return to the consideration of inflation, further devaluation of the most usugublenoy. Here, the key question is how does overcome the already traditional for Russia inflationary phenomenon?
According to Valery Mironov, the current increase in inflation is largely due to the increase of tariffs of natural monopolies. In a crisis, apparently, not enough has been slightly reduced the projected increase in rates earlier, as it made the government more correct, it would be their most “freeze” and, especially, electricity tariffs. In doing so, it would be important to the whole activities of the competition.
welcoming the measures, Maria Kataranova recalled that the inflation problem in Russia were systemic in nature and therefore must be addressed in an integrated manner – by some one-time shares here can not do. Unjustified price nakrutki in his native homeland due to many factors. And, including the fact that wages in our recent pre-crisis period of increased without reference to rosshey much more slowly (if not mark time) productivity. Or such factors as the high price expectations: the Russians have become accustomed to the fact that obyavlyaemy authorities earlier this year projected the inflation rate does not coincide with a much higher level of outcome, based on what the producers felt a natural once again to Stock “podkrutit” prices.
That is true, it would be noted – Inflation in Russia in the head. But not because in reality it’s not, but because to a large extent it is due to settle the problem of pathological habit banal rising prices. In order to fundamentally change the situation, it is necessary to abandon the old “nakrutochnoy” psychology.
To overcome this trend, among other things, of course, it is necessary to fully develop competition in the Russian economy (in this context, the word , Naidenova offered to abandon the present policy of support to individual enterprises, allowing the introduction of the common benefits and easing the tax burden), in passing, and working to improve the competitiveness of the original product, emphasized Kataranova. And here, in her view, the crisis, in fact, can also play a positive role by forcing greater stir and power, and ordinary economic agents.
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In December 2008, “bass-Bank (JSC) has entered into a new billing system and the first bank has started issuing new cards customs payment system« Green Corridor »Ltd. Customs Payment System.
Bank provides a full range of services and flexible tariffs for production and maintenance of data cards, the service is fully automated. The bank has been replacing other custom maps of any bank in the new map “Green Corridor”.
Bank has developed and launched a website dedicated to the customs map “Green Corridor” Ltd. Customs Payment System. The website can be accessed with a detailed description of the customs cards “Green Corridor”, the order of registration and a list of customs terminals, the host map “Green Corridor”.
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From 23 to 29 January, Gazprombank held a public tender for the purchase of two Eurobond issues with maturities in 2010 and 2015. These eurobonds were issued by GPB Eurobond Finance PLC in 2007 and 2005, respectively.
on the results of the Bank agreed to buy back Eurobonds totaling 82 million U.S. dollars (at par). In particular, Eurobonds maturing in 2010 to 42.55 million U.S. dollars at a price of 88% of the nominal value and Eurobonds maturing in 2015 to 39.34 million U.S. dollars at a price of 65% of the nominal value. Projected date of redemption – on 5 February 2009.
«Redemption significantly reduced the amount of paper the size of Bank’s debt and improve its financial performance, – underlined the Executive Vice-President Akaki Beruchashvili. – This transaction will allow the Bank to capture a significant inventory gains. In addition, the conduct of holders of securities in the competition – and relatively low offers for sale, and a significant increase in the price of Eurobonds Bank in recent years – clearly demonstrated the confidence of investors in the reliability and high credit quality compared to the long term ».
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January 28, 2009 Senior Vice President, a member of the Communications Bank appointed Paul Rychenkov. P. Rychenkov will oversee the investment direction of the Bank and the integrated financial services institutions.
P. Rychenkov born May 24, 1974 in Moscow. In 1997, graduated from the Financial Academy under the Government of the Russian Federation in the specialty «Finance and Credit», in 2007 – the State University Higher School of Economics with qualifications «Master of Business Administration – Master of Business Administration (MBA)». PhD in economics.
his working P. Rychenkov began in 1995 in World Economy from the post of Expert Division of Resource Management and was promoted to chief dealer Direction monetary transactions. In 2002, headed the Department of Operations in the foreign exchange and money markets, the Department of monetary and financial transactions.
in 2007 was appointed deputy chief of the Department of Management of short-term liquidity and resources directorate monetary transactions.
In response, the Bank came in December 2008 for the post of Adviser to the President-Chairman of the Board.
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