El notes

In the second half of 2009, the Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending (AHML) may double over the first half of the volume of refinancing a mortgage in a bank balance, or to significantly reduce them. It depends on whether AHML attract debt market funds under its own bonds.

Yesterday, the Supervisory Board approved the AHML optimistic and pessimistic versions of the business plan for the second half. Fully AHML the contents of the document does not disclose, with reference to trade secrets. In an official communication AHML detail only optimistic variant of the business plan for the second half. According to him, the refinancing of banks alive money reaches 112.3 billion rubles. at the end of the year against 84.1 billion rubles. at the end of the first half. Thus, if favorable to AHML developments in the second half AHML refinansiruet mortgage loans totaling 28.2 billion rubles. In the first half AHML entered into contracts with banks to refinance mortgages totaling about 14 billion rubles.

To implement the plan for doubling the refinancing of mortgage AHML intends to use the five sources of funds. This is 30 billion rubles. last year’s contribution from the state in the authorized capital AHML (a total of 60 billion rubles.) that were not expended in the first half, the Government promised an additional contribution to the charter capital of a further 20 billion rubles. approved credit line VEBa by 40 billion rubles., funds from placement of corporate bonds AHML with gosgarantiyami at 28 billion rubles. and three issues of mortgage bonds AHML to 16.5 billion rubles.

pessimistic version of the business plan will be implemented when it is not possible to attract funds from the placement agency, said in his message. As explained by “Kommersant” Director of Communications Department AHML Anna Yartseva, the realization of a scenario would depend on the state of the economy and market. “We expect that implementing an interim scenario, closer to the optimistic,” – she said.

greatest difficulties arise with the placement of mortgage bonds AHML, predicts one of the members of the supervisory board of the agency. “AHML counts on pension funds of Russia, and to implement these calculations mere amendments to the RPF investdeklaratsiyu little extra money from the fund is not” – he said. Receive funds under corporate bonds AHML find it easier to agree to another person “Kommersant” in the supervisory board of the agency. For this AHML intends to sell its own securities in the Central Bank repo transactions through authorized banks or exchange them at banks, mortgage bonds, which, in turn, will be able to get them under the pawn-shop credits.

How to change the amount of refinancing in the case of the pessimistic scenario, the agency did not say. Source of the Supervisory Board points out that in the worst scenario the amount of refinancing in the second half may reach 11 billion rubles., That is almost three times less than in the optimistic scenario, and a quarter less than in the first half. “Pessimistic scenario assumes a partial compensation for reduction in mortgage refinancing alive by the exchange of money for banks on corporate bonds and mortgage bonds AHML”, – told “Kommersant” Member of the Supervisory Board, Member of the MICEX Vladimir Gusakov. This mechanism provides an opportunity to refinance a mortgage in AHML including banks, are not working on standards AHML.

However, market participants are skeptical received both a business plan. “Given that the amount owed on the mortgage loans of approximately $1 trillion rubles. Allotted amount negligible and would only partially solve the problems of the AHML arising from the sharp deterioration in the quality of loans on the balance sheet of banks-partners”, – said Deputy Head of unit ” Retail business of Alfa-Bank Il’ya Zebari.