Toggle posts

A A+ A++

Such data has led Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin on the board of the Federal Tax Service. Those who wanted to leave, he said, have already done so. However, capital inflows into the country shortly to wait still not worth it. He acknowledged that Russia has suffered from the crisis stronger than the developed countries and increase its GDP is not even at unrealistically high for 2009, the price of oil at 50-55 dollars per barrel. The head of the Ministry of Economic Development Elvira Nabiullina, in contrast, believes that, with successful anti-crisis measures growth is possible even in 2009. So far, officials argue, confidence in the power rating is reduced.

From October 2008 to January 2009 outflow was about 200 billion U.S. dollars, calculated Alexey Kudrin, but it is now virtually ceased. According to him, those who wish, including Russian companies, have already eliminated capital abroad. Smooth the devaluation of the ruble, accelerated in January, contributed to the care people, banks, companies in the currency. Now this process is somewhat stabilized. «The share of foreign currency deposits in total deposits in Russian banks is 32%, and now it is stable – confirmed yesterday at a meeting of the banking commission RUIE First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexey Ulyukaev. – Foreign currency deposits ceased to grow ». However, the outflow could again increase if oil prices fall and the government will resort to further devaluation of the ruble for a nominal recharge budget. To resume the inflow of capital into the country, economists estimate «Renaissance Capital» Elena Sharipova, oil should appreciate at least 50 dollars per barrel.

In the meantime, the economy continues to decline. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, GDP in 2009 decreased by 2,2%, with an average price of oil at 41 dollars per barrel. According to Mr. Kudrin, Russia’s GDP will fall, even if oil suddenly went up and the average price would be 50-55 dollars per barrel (more than likely the price, according to many experts, 32 dollars per barrel). Because of the reduction in the fall of the global economy, he expects no significant growth in oil prices, because in the next few years should not expect a significant increase in revenues and the Russian budget.

MEDT, the traditional opponent of the Ministry of Finance, believes the situation in Russia is not so bad. According to the Minister of Economic Development Elvira Nabiullina, GDP growth in 2009 at a price of 50 dollars per barrel is still possible to «subject to the effectiveness of anti-crisis measures». Chief Economist «Troika Dialog» Yevgeny Gavrilenkov believes that growth is possible at any price, if achieved macroeconomic stability: «After all, grown as before and with $20». In his view, it is necessary to move to floating exchange rates, not to increase budget expenditures, with lower inflation and interest rates, and therefore the extension of credit on a market basis. A Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Economic Development provided a different impact of anti-crisis measures, and because estimates of the growth of GDP is not the same », – said the expert group of the Economic Expert Nicholas anther.

In spring last year, Alexei Kudrin, spoke of Russia as an island of stability in the world ocean bushuyuschem crisis. International financial institutions have confirmed this assessment forecasts that developing countries suffer less from the crisis than developed. Yesterday, Alexei Kudrin admitted that in 2009 no country, except for other oil-producing states, has not been faced with this decline in revenues as Russia. However, to attach great importance to predictions of Ministers is not worth, the situation is very volatile, said Mr. Gavrilenkov: «In 1998, when everything collapsed, the IMF and the Russian government said that in 1999 Russia will decline by 5-8% and resulted in 6% growth ».

To restore the economy and the stock market needs confidence (people, companies, etc.) and the upward trend in oil prices since the start of the 50 U.S. a barrel, believes Ms. Malofeeva. But differences in the government are clearly not conducive to trust. According to the Levada Center poll, the proportion of Russians who believe that the cases in the country are generally in the right direction, now is 41%, the opposite view hold 40% of the citizens. In January, people were more optimistic: the right course authorities believed 43% of respondents, wrong – 34%.

No tags