2009 proved to be an ordeal for the banks, but the following will not be better, officials predict.

More Bankruptcy

New year will bring gifts to banks. In the 2010-m bankrupts will be noticeably higher than in 2009, sure, first deputy chairman Gennady Melikyan Bank. “This year, we withdrew 44 licenses, I think that next year will be significantly more,” – he said.

This situation is normal for those countries before Russia entered the crisis, added the banker. For example, in the U.S. last year was withdrawn about 30 licenses of banks, and this year is 120.

G. Melikyan explained that the first phase of the crisis, as a rule, the Bank has liquidity problems, then comes the deterioration of asset quality, which requires a reservation of funds. As a result, banks have problems with liquidity and capital.

“There is a division of banks. All have fallen, and now some are beginning to quietly climb out, while others can not get out and finally falls” — summarized the first deputy chairman of the CBR.

Head Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA), Alexander Turbanov believes that positive changes in the banking industry can not be expected before 2011. “Changes in the structure and dynamics of the banking sector could begin no earlier than 2011″, – he said.

“The next year, apparently, the banking system will follow the trajectory of zero growth. The will continue to be topical problem of bad debts, the amount of state aid will be reduced, and means the Bank of Russia will replace part of the contributions of the population “, – said A. Turbanov.

Chapter ACB believes that next year possibly a weak revival of bank lending to enterprises, while a downturn in retail lending.

population helped banks

And if in the current year to raise funds to banks to help the population, which has brought 900 billion rubles in the form of deposits and an additional 400 billion rubles in the form of repayment, then the next year, the inflow of capital from the physical persons may be diminished.

In 2010, the population’s ability to conserve funds may decline, believes A. Turbanov, as rising wages in the budget sector is frozen, many planned to increase tariffs is an acute problem of unemployment.

in 2009, the head of DIA, some support to banks in addition to Russian townsfolk have owners . The aggregate authorized capital of banks rose by 300 billion rubles, but this is not a consequence of growth of the resource base, and the need to compensate for losses associated with the formation of reserves, said A. Turbanov. According to him, the amount of formed reserves for loan losses increased from the beginning of 2009 to 700 billion rubles.

good in November

Referring to the current situation in the banking sector, G. Melikyan told about the problem of overdue loans. November in terms of growth delay was very good “month – said the first deputy chairman of the Central Bank.

According to him, the share of overdue loans to enterprises for November increased from 6,7% to 6,85 %. The level of overdue loans have risen – from 8,2% to 8,5%. G. Melikyan explained that these figures were calculated based on Russia’s Accounting Standards (RAS) and without indicators of Sberbank.

In November for the first 10 months of recorded growth of credit portfolio of banks to non-financial organizations – on 0 , 8%. However, this indicator is calculated without taking into account the exchange rate revaluation, G. Melikyan explained. According to preliminary estimates, if we exclude the impact of exchange rate revaluation, the dynamics of lending is at the level of 0-0,1%, he added.

Lending physical persons in November, said G. Melikyan, decreased to 0, 2%. The total amount of arrears, according to G. Melikyan, on all loans banks for nearly a month did not increase, its share amounted to about 5,5%.

G. Melikyan said that the total for November assets rose by 2,8%, the total equity capital – to 1,2%.

first deputy chairman of the Central Bank also noted that in November significantly increased funds in the accounts of companies – growth for the month amounted to 3,3%.

“December is a small increase in lending to individuals and legal entities. Very little” – he added.

What As for the actual “bad debts”, but last month their growth was negligible. “The share of loans 4.5 categories as of 1 November was 10,5-10,6%. This figure indicates the amount of” bad “loans. In November, growth will be small. The moon was good,” – said G. Melikyan.

In early December, Melikyan G. predicted that by the end of 2009, the proportion of “bad” assets in the portfolio of Russian banks may grow to 11-12%.

Large private worse

A. Turbanov noted that in Russia at present, all banks can be divided into 4 groups: state banks, large private banks, banks with foreign capital and regional banks.

This crisis has affected all groups of banks, but the most severely affected large private banks, because due to the aggressive pre-crisis development strategies, they were most vulnerable to the risks that they have a large amount of ‘bad’ loans They also had the lowest levels of profitability and capital adequacy. For further development and increase market share, these banks will require additional support from the owners.

State Bank have also suffered during the crisis, but they were the main recipients of government support – through the expansion of the refinancing of the banking system and through capital increase. This gave them substantial competitive advantage. Last year they were the most aggressive in increasing its market share.

Banks with foreign capital due to a conservative strategy for the development and support from parent bodies have been better protected from risks than banks in Russia. DIA expects that the share of foreign capital will continue to increase in the banking sector, but at a slower pace than in 2006-2007, said A. Turbanov.

As for regional banks, then, to his view, this group of massive deals for acquisitions is not expected. During the crisis, the tools of state support were unavailable for these banks, but the business structure of credit institutions and the traditionally high level of liquidity has allowed many of them maintain stability without external support.

Keep kids

Talking about the problem of increasing the minimum size requirements for the banks’ own funds of up to 90 million rubles in 2010 and to 180 million rubles in 2012, head of the DIA reported that the majority of the banks themselves trying to solve this problem, and their mass closure will not have to grieve. ” According to A. Turbanova, offering the vice-premier, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin to improve in the future size of the banks ‘minimum capital to 1 billion rubles fits into the overall strategy for sustained improvement of banks’ capital.

But the head of DIA again invited to review the feasibility of introducing the institution of regional banks, which were presented to more lenient supervisory requirements. A. Turbanov noted that the U.S. policy of consolidation of banks has led to what appeared multinational giants.

“The cost of resolving the problems of large banks to the public and the budget has been extremely high, and if so, encourage the establishment of the giants is dangerous “, – said Alexander Turbanov, noting that, nevertheless, encourage banks to increase the capitalization necessary.

Chapter ASB proposes to revise approaches to the regulation of banks and set them to more high demands on stability. For example, for banks, which control more than 5% of all assets of the system, capital adequacy requirements could be increased to 13-14%.

“Why not write a more detailed disclosure (of information) and excretion 25% (banks) in exchange for an effective external market control. It would be fair payment for the extraction of economic benefits from economies of scale and insurance from the commercial failure of giants “- adds A. Turbanov.

Subordinated loans instead of OFZ

Arguing about plans to support banks in 2010, G. Melikyan proposed in the budget reserve funds for the issuance of subordinated loans to banks. “My personal view is that this is one of the most successful projects”, – he said.

G. Melikyan noting that perhaps this tool will return, as another tool bank refinancing – through the federal loan bonds (OFZ) – not in demand.

According to G. Melikyan, the VEB has three requests from banks “in a high degree of readiness.” Recall that in early October Vnesheconombank said it was suspending acceptance of new applications for subordinated loans due to lack of funds.

Total VEB resources allocated for these purposes is 410 billion rubles. At that time, already have been approved banks totaling $391.8 billion rubles. Also before the VEB were 20 applications totaling $95.02 billion rubles.

Thus, the bank still has only the possibility dokapitalizatsii through the exchange of preferred shares in federal loan bonds (OFZ). However, this mechanism does not enjoy popularity among banks. The first deputy chairman of the Central Bank Alexey Ulyukayev in late November to explain this attitude of banks so that this mechanism is no real need.

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