In its report entitled “The worst scenario is the debt”, the command of the French Societe Generale analysts had concluded that the authorities around the world, helping the private sector debt, saddled with his problems on his shoulders. “So far, no one can say with great confidence that we have avoided the global economic collapse” – believe the ex-Perth SocGen.
Almost all developed countries the ratio of private-public debt to GDP is still too high. The authorities have already done the maximum possible financial infusions. As a result, the debt will increase the UK for two years to 105% of GDP, the U.S. and the euro zone – up to 125%, Japan – up to 270%, analysts predict SocGen. The debt burden – the worst since the end of World War II, and reset it will be very difficult in the first place because of population growth. “In the long term level of government debt is absolutely unstable. We are almost at the point of no return “, – said study leader Daniel Fairmont.
Societe Generale has painted a portrait of the world economy in gray tones: the dollar continues its decline, as markets re-test the bottom of the March. Real estate prices will go down again, and oil next year will cost $50 per barrel. The growing national debt is the lesser evil for some countries. For the sake of saving savings, investors will shift their assets into gold, which will ensure long-term rise in the price. To avoid losses of the bank encourages its customers to sell the dollar, to sit in short positions on shares of the technology sector and automakers. Safe haven for investors may be agricultural products.
About relapses recession have grown more vocal and States governmental officials. Thus, Adviser to the Government of Germany on Economic Affairs Peter Bofinger, said this week that Europe’s largest economy re-recession could begin late next year. The main reason – minimize financial incentives that are now brought the German economy in plus, says Mr. Bofinger.
However, not all experts are looking at the future so pessimistically. “The United States emerged from the last world war, with the level of debt, which amounted to more than 120% of GDP, but the 1950’s were a period of rapid growth – told RBC daily expert at the London School of Economics Ethan Ilzhetski. – I think that the risks are greater still belong to the developing countries, which will be more difficult to refinance their debts in the event of a worsening situation in the world ยป.
