El notes

According to the Central Bank, on October 1, 2009 the volume of overdue loans physical persons amounted to 231 billion rubles, or 6.8% of all issued on that date for loans. This figure can be considered a record. Increase the proportion of delay compared with the beginning of the year – 2.68%. However, Western rating agencies had recently painted a far more gloomy picture. Thus, the projected S & P, to the end of 2009 the delay in Russia “should” mark was reached 35-50% of all loans granted. In the current environment, market participants are confident that the terrible prophecy of Western colleagues do not come true. According to general director of debt collection agency Sequoia Helena Dokuchaevo, the failure to credit at the end of the year comes to a mark of 15%. Experts Agency bailiff “expect this figure at 20%. After analyzing your own portfolio of 350-400 thousand credits for natural persons, Sequoia, experts concluded that the growth rate of debt in the loan portfolio while stable, but are stable, without jumps. According to the Central Bank, outstanding loans for both physical and legal persons for the past two months, not grown at all, in this regard, the regulator has revised its forecasts for this indicator, from 13 to 10%.

Returning to credit for natural persons, experts agree that the truth is somewhere in the range, presented by the collectors, and note that it is not so bad result in the current situation. “I think that the failure credit for natural persons by the end of the year will amount to 10-15%. This level can be considered acceptable, given the blow that was inflicted on our economy. It is not surprising that the delay continues to grow, we can not expect a sharp recovery,” — said analyst FC Uralsib Leonid Slipchenko.

Banks sell portfolios of overdue loans with a huge discount. According Dokuchaevo, sometimes the price goes up to 1,5-3% of the debt. “We can assume that the worst times came in I-II quarters of this year, it is possible that the peak of the delay occurs in the first half of 2010. After that, start a gradual recovery,” – notes Slipchenko. To services of collectors are increasingly using financial institutions, which previously would never have thought of such cooperation. However, despite the abundance of new clients, collectors anxiously looking to the future. The volume of consumer loans had plummeted, and the “knock out” money from the existing debtor was 1,5 times more complicated. The Agency shall have to make concessions, in some cases even forgive the payment of fines, some of which constitute 50% of the amount of debt.

Experts Agency Sequoia identified several discouraging trends. Compared with the years 2007-2008 has increased the average amount of debt portfolios offered for sale. Previously it was 28 141 rubles, but now it is already about 33 453 rubles. The average selling time of delay also increased. Thus, in 2007-2008 it was about year and a half, and now – about 2,5-3 years. The maximum term offered to buy the debt reaches 5-7 years, whereas before with such multi-year loans were practically no problems.

changed for the worse and the behavior of debtors. Dokuchaeva notes that many people use the crisis as an excuse. The study found: about 44% of debtors who, in a conversation with a collector refer to financial difficulties, continue to make payments against the debt. In addition, it is best to pay the debtors who have committed the delay of 10-12 months, then there are those who really suffered in the midst of crisis and non-payers with the experience continues to evade creditors.

Although that the strengthening of the dollar in late 2008 – early 2009 has hurt borrowers, pay for foreign currency loans, a further fall in the rate it has not led to a dramatic improvement. Only 15% of clients, borrowers of loans in foreign currency, responded positively to this change. The solvency of debtors fell by 10% compared to the years 2007-2008. “To achieve the previous performance, in current conditions it is necessary to take more high-cost action, rather than earlier,” – the study says Sequoia. The same trend highlights and senior vice president of Debt Agency bailiff Sergei Shpeter: “First, the increased cost of collectors to collect – at 30%. Secondly, the collection has decreased – by 20%. The most profitable business for us – work with the “freshness” of portfolios, with a delay of up to one year, and as banks have become less loans, collection agencies receive fewer portfolios with an early delay “.

Agency general director Elena Dokuchaev considers that in the new year the situation changed radically: “We believe that the failure to begin to fall no earlier than in 2011. I doubt that in 2010 for the majority of defaulters greatly improve the situation. Moscow debtors, probably earlier than the others resolve their problems, and in the regions people still long to be in financial difficulty. “But she hoped that the situation in the Gaza potrebkreditov in the new year will improve, lending volumes will grow.” Right now, there has been some stabilization, which appeared prerequisites for the resumption of active lending in Russia and to increase incomes. In such circumstances, growth delay, in relative terms can be slowed, and then begin to decline, “- Sergey assumes Shpeter.” Despite the fact that rates on consumer loans are still at a high level, they are slowly moving downward. Gradually, some banks soften the requirements for borrowers. To contribute to this process will be low inflation and foreign exchange policy “- summarizes Leonid Slipchenko.

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